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Previous Blogs Since 20th Dec 2008 to 30th Jan 2009 Thanks for checking it out......................
26th April 2009 - TIME TO SING WHEN YOU'RE WINNING? The winners keep coming on the horse racing front with a fantastic weekends punting. AP McCoy showed us all again why he is the master with a never say die ride on Hennessy in the Sandown showpiece yesterday - we've backed him on his two best rides of the season if you recall Wichita Lineman at Cheltenham. What a superstar he is and all credit goes to jockey and horse on a tireless effort to reel in the gallant Briery Fox. Sangfroid took the earlier handicap hurdle in a similar fashion having looked beat all ends up some way from the finish but he is a horse with ability and the penny has now dropped expect bright things from Nick Williams' animal. Today we managed to grab a decent price about the gambled winner Treaty Flyer and glad also that he didn't let us down like he had when punted last time, he is well handicapped on this showing and can go on again as he has talent when handled properly. Let's hope we continue the roll into Punchestown and we certainly have a few quid to spend there with only one poor month since we launched in December and approx 200pts or so up overall ( I'll be getting the calculator out and totting up the position this week!! ) it's been a super start for the On The Nose Info team....No slacking though it's back to the form study as always.... All the best The Judge
19th April 2009 - Poor showings today from our two picks with neither horse looking like getting involved from some way out. It's been a decent week though with a few winners keeping us nicely above the profit line for April. It will be quiet on the horse front now till Punchestown which is looking like being an absolute belter of a meeting and of course runs straight into the guineas meeting....great stuff. Sad point of the weekend was That's Rhythm coming down a mile or so out in the Scottish National when travlling supremely well, it was too early perhaps to know how he would have fared but he certainly had done everything right to that point and has to be followed wherever he shows up next. I have managed to get on the wrong horses from some red hot stables, I must have gone for 3 or 4 Dessie Hughes horses who although have ran well were not the 3 or 4 winners he bagged at the same meetings - the same can be said for Richard Fahey on Saturday with Halla San who could only manage second place and he cleans up with his other runners - bizarre and frustrating but they are punters pals at the moment so keep on side! I will try to tidy up the site and move some text to the archive pages over the next few days. Cheers for now The Judge
16th April 2009 - No doubt if you jumped on with The Judge this morning at 20/1 for Rathcor in the Cheltenham 3.55 you were feling pretty smug as it was hammered all day and went off at 7/1 fav - this didn't mean we had won but when it jumped the second last the betfair exchanges hit lows of 1.5 - a great trade but sadly he didn't last home and the money went down. Horrible when that happens even if slight hope was offered as Gala Evening was flying at them and finished a very credible fourth. Our other picks were not up to scratch, Gaspara was ridden horribly but to be completely frank it seems she has lost a bit of love for the game and needs a confidence booster to revive fortunes. Oasis Knight looked ok until running a bit green and is still one to watch in my view, the fact that he couldn't travel in the dip again shows what ability is there having already won on a course that clearly didn't suit again. Tomorrow has some nice racing too so we will be involved again all being well - I'll leave you dreaming of the Scottish National and the upcoming Punchestown festival ! The Judge
15th April 2009 - Update... Cracking week for the Onthenose pundits with The Judge churning out the results at Fairyhouse and Cheltenham to restore the horse racing monthly position to profit and also Colin Coupon hitting the target with some big priced advice on the Cycling - more below so check his write ups! However Jeff Rough stole the show with an outrageous shout in the Masters at Augusta advising the outright winner Angel Cabrera at 140/1 pre-tournament - for a total profit on the tournament of 171pts....what a debut from him and we welcome him back for the all the Majors this year!! Can't wait... All the best and apologies for lack of write up today to go with the horse racing tips - this is a free service which is combined with regular jobs, family commitments and normal life related headaches!! Sometimes it's just not possible - hope you still got involved with the easy Cheltenham winner Atouchbetweenacara, Venetia Williams really knows how to line one up there... Best wishes The Judge..
Masters Preview - Augusta 2009 Welcome to Jeff Rough's Masters preview - it's a super return to the Major's with Tiger Woods back in full flow and fresh from a tournament win, Harrington going for an amazing three in a row and Mickleson having repaired his game somewhat and ready to challenge. Add to that Sergio Garcia, a revitalised Paul Casey, and the mercurial young talent of Rory McIlroy and you have some tournament lined up. From a betting perspective it's an easy move to look solely at the w/o Woods market and rule him out of the equation but that's a bit defeatist especially as in my view if you think he'll win you should back him and watch him romp home. He must go close if playing anywhere near his best but I can't advise a bet at such cramped odds and let's look elsewhere. The first man to concentrate on is Angel Cabrera, the tough Argentinian who has all the right attributes to be competitive here at Augusta. He has lit up the course before with some very solid rounds, notably a 66 and ten under par rounds to add to that and his tenth shot at the Green Jacket could be his best. I expect him to go well in his threeball where he will have the company and competition from Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson. His excellent driving is key to this course and if he can sharpen his short game enough to scramble around the greens for pars then he will be thereabouts. Camillo Villegas also strikes me as a player who is ready to take a big leap, his form already entitles him to get involved in the Majors, he has put moments of brilliance alongside some abject efforts but gradually his consistency is coming together. A fearless putter who can be seen to great effect on the notorious Augusta dancefloors! Previous efforts here are not inspiring but we see a better player turn up in 2009 - watch out for some fireworks. Lastly it's the nearly man Justin Rose who I think is going to have a super 2009 - he is so consistent, mentally strong and reminds of Faldo in his attitude and course management. If he gets a start, as he often does here, then his game now has the hallmarks neccesary to stay and stay big into Sunday. His price is wrong and should be shorter as he will play without previous pressures that usually surround his visit to Augusta. I would suggest you look to the Betfair markets for an edge over bookie prices but my advice is best on the high street as liquidity and prices fluctuate so quick on the exchanges. If you do use Betfair then the golf trading oppotunities are worth a hell of a lot - nothing like selling on your bet at a quarter of the price you took and taking a punt on a challenger, green up and watch the greens rather than see red! Enjoy a fascinating tournament... Advice Angel Cabrera 1pt e/w - 140/1 First five places, BET365 Camillo Villegas 1pt e/w - 50/1 First five places, Totesport Justin Rose 1pt e/w - 66/1 First five places, BET365 JEFF ROUGH.
Racing Blog - 6th April 2009 WAS IT THAT HARD TO SPOT MON MOME AT 100/1 - The answer is no in hindsight, carrying the magic mark of 11st or below, aged perfectly at 9, form in marathon races, sent of a short favourite for a Welsh National and had jumped round the fences before. Temper that with a few recent poor runs and the fact that he is French Bred then you get the price he was allowed to go of at - you had to have reserves of faith but if you did well done!!! I know he was pretty faniced last year so if you went in again you got your dosh back plus some decent change!! Our selections ran well, Offshore Account looked the winner turning 3 out cruising in the lead with the ill fated Hear The Echo, but stamina ran out or fitness told and he was happy to plod on and finish. Idle Talk ran super for a long way but same applies and Silver Birch was bang in there till coming to grief with an uncharacteristic mitake on the second circuit. Parsons Legacy was given a good ride to be creeping into the pack at second beechers, in my view he jumped it too big and chucked Richard Johnson over the top - a real shame as I am sure his bags of stamina would have come right in to play. You have to respect the effot of Ruby Walsh on My Will and also Timmy Murphy's ride on Comply Or Die, both super performances from horse and jockey under heavy weight burdens. The stats men will tell you that previous trends have been up held but it's hard to argue that the top four finishers carried 11st or more. I am still of the opinion that it's extremely difficult to carry over 11st and win but on decent ground as it was on Saturday then you have to consider the top weights will not have it so hard. Our punting over the few days really caught a dose of seconditis, with Copper Bleu reeled in, Oodachee left it too late, Leading Contender found one too good and Fiveforthree was mugged, surely winners waiting to happen in all four cases - sadly we wont get 9/2, 20/1, 28/1 an 8/1 next time!! Onwards and upwards and we'll be back for Fairyhouse this easter weekend and Punchestown soon after - not to mention that the flat will no doubt keep us entertained! All the best and thanks to the new followers for emails, banter and small amounts of slagging, much enjoyed! Especially my airplane friend who will not have anyone but Chris Sutton in his all time football eleven, I could imagine defence and attack would be alright but 11 Chris Sutton's wouldn't get in my team...I'm sure Colin Coupon could advise here...... The Judge
Racing Blog - Progress Report! 16th March 2009 CHELTENHAM DELIGHT FOR ONTHENOSEINFO..... It has been a super four weeks or so! Since the middle of February we are nigh on 50pts ahead, that's some month. Russian Trigger tops and tails that list nicely, taking the Folkstone National and then the Midlands National four weeks apart and we jumped on board both times at a very friendly 12/1. Gala Evening nearly repeated that trick in between Russian Trigger's wins, only a short head shy but we managed to collect thanks to a saver on his conqueror Dont Tell The Wife second time round! It was a nice build up the the festival given the string of close calls suffered the previous month or so. Cheltenham got off to a flyer with two winners in the first three races, ante post shout Forpadydeplasterer really justified our hopes winning when it mattered on the big day and we nearly copped a second pay out in the race with Tartak running a sound race, despite a troubled run, to finish fourth. Interesting to note that the top hurdle rating from previous seasons is still a main stat for an Arkle winner, both the winner and the second had that form in the book over their rivals, note for next year. Maljimar carried the majority of our dosh in the next and was just touched off by a moment of genius from AP McCoy on Wichita Lineman, ride of the festival for sure and perhaps the season. We still collected as Wichita Lineman was the second choice for us but it was hard to take given Maljmiar was 16/1 as opposed to AP's mount returning victorious at 6s....nice to get the race call correct though and the forecast paid over 200 sheets.. Punjabi took the Champion Hurdle beating three talented 5 year olds into the places, some performance from the forgotton horse in the build up. His form was there to be seen and his momentum and greater strength in the finish was enough to take the crown. Hard to see him being able to repeat that next year but a deserved success. We only stuck once on the second day but thankfully it was enough to make it another winning one as Ninetieth Minute stormed home under Paddy Flood at 18/1. An excellent ride in my view as he was kept in daylight and up with the action all the way around, so key with the hurly burly of the cheltenham traffic in the big hurdle races, think Pyscho last year. Master Minded and Well Chief stole the day with a great show in the Champion Chase, you have to feel for Well Chief who will never claim a crown he would have any normal year without the presence of the beast that is Master Minded - some horse who took this without even being fully wound up. He will probably be even better next year as he is still so young for a 2 time champion. Thursday was a scorcher with 33/1 Something Wells stealing the race from stablemate Ping Pong Siviola in a one two for Venetia Williams. It was always our selections target whereas the more fancied and race favourite Ping Pong was a late deferall to the race and it would have been cruel had he accounted for Something Wells - luckily for The Judge he didn't and we had another winning day. Friday was a nearly day in which we took a small loss, Ebadiyan looked to have a major say in the opener but ducked out at the third last and even though it's slightly pocket talk, the memory of him battling back at Leopardstown behind Jumbo Rio leaves me thinking he would have taken some stopping up the Cheltenham hill. The winner Zaynar and Walk On are no doubt very nice horses for next year. Moon Over Miami hit the crossbar at huge odds for us in the last, shame he couldn't out battle Oh Crick and even though we lost I was happy for Alan King to get off the mark at the end of a tough week for him with some nasty reverses in Walk On, Voy Por Ustedes and of course Medermit on day one. It was Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls week for sure with a sidenote for Willie Mullins, between them everything fell right and then some. Ruby's seven winners will live long on the memory and Nicholls so close to taking all the major races. Mullins didn't win the bumper but bar that he did the business with some fine novices who will all be back next year to repeat their success. Spare a thought though for Hurricane Fly who didn't make the week and was in his box as everything he slammed in Ireland practically hosed up! He will be some animal when next seen on the track as his form is so franked it should be known as the Bough... Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 9th March 2009 - One day to go till the Festival and The Judge hopes that saturday's results are not a sign of the week ahead. We missed out on a couple of place returns by one place again and that's always a tough one to take. Keki Beku ran a stormer and looked the winner at two out but ran out of petrol from there staying on one paced and was swallowed up when tired. Still a well handicapped horse in my view they will need to look at a race just over 2m and this horse will still win races. Cheltenham to focus on now and the previews are on line covering the Supreme Novices and Arkle - we covered the Champion back around Christmas time and look to have done our dough with Sizing Europe who hasn't shown form good enough and is now doubtful to go to post. I'm still keen on Blue Bajan proving better than his odds suggest and he can go well. Enjoy the week!! The Judge
Racing Info 27th February 2009 - What a week 20+ points on the board and just like Amy Winehouse we're back to black. Saturday tomorrow and it makes a change to not have to chase but focus on continuing the good form. We were a short head from making it three winners for the week but we'll take two at double figures any day of course. Let's crack on and hopefully Colin Coupon has some decent picks for the weekend action too. Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 25th February 2009 - Great to see Russian Trigger get his head infront for us today in the Folkstone National. A cracking finish to a nice race and brilliant news for the Dartnell stable to get amongst the winners with Cheltenham around the corner. Interesting to see now if Lodge Lane will make Cheltenham and give us a run for our ante post money? I hope so. We nearly copped a proper payout again with Well Run just finishing out the first three at 16's and scuppering our e/w play and a nice e/w double - this was a good run though and the Irish National might be the race to go for with a few less pounds to carry there. Dorothy's Friend was third and when his jumping improves I think he will be a hurdler to reckon with - keep an eye on the progress for sure. We got a nice bonus on the returns today by betting with a G'teed Price firm, there are many carrying this concession these days and it pays sometimes to miss the best morning price in favour of these firms. If your price taken is shorter than SP they will pay the SP - only applies to singles and e/w singles so doubles and acca's don't get the same bonus but still the way to go most of the time. Cheltenham NRNB odds are available now with the High Street firms and the weights for the handicaps have just come out so the Judge will scour the entries and let you have some views soon. Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 22nd February 2009 - Well another tame weekend for the Judge with some bad results on Saturday and then a very near miss on Sunday to mull over. Saturday first and Nacarat under Tony McCoy ran away with the Racing Post Chase and deservedly so. Their super performance from the front left all the field reeling and now the connections are eyeing up the King George at the same track in 2010. Our picks just couldn't get involved and in common with the rest fought it out for minor honours but alas without success. Harmony Brig in the Eider was running a sound race till the fracas with a running rail and a rival knocked him off stride. It wasn't enough to explain the result and looking at the race again he didn't quite get home and the money went down. At Fairyhouse our selections Panzer Chief and Ten Fires let their connections down with poor performances that were too bad to be true. Both horses have ability but certainly chose to leave that at home on this occasion, hard to follow them again based on this. Sunday we nearly repaired all the recent damage with Posiedons Secret going down by a short head in a photo and Limestream just missing out on the places in 5th for our e/w double and a nice place return at 33/1. Had he placed we would be back in profit for the month and such are the fine lines the Judge has fallen the wrong side of recently!! We have now reached a total in the twenties of horses that have done just this and missed the places by one place or a non-runner change of terms, hard to believe but that is racing and when this trend goes our way so will our fortunes - well that's the plan! With Cheltenham round the corner some novice hurdlers put in contrasting performances in the past week. Howard Johnson has been telling anyone that would listen that Red Maloney was top drawer and his third win from three starts was a good effort in a poor race. His running style is very impressive, picking up pace and kicking when required is a great asset for the cheltenham prizes and he must be feared in the Supreme especially on good ground which may blunt the Irish challenge from Cousin Vinny or Hurricane Fly. Zaarito has left his form at home and now takes a break to freshen up for Fairyhouse and Punchestown rather than take the boat to Prestbury Park. His conquerer Go Native has done the opposite and was a ready winner in a good field of horses, his trainer thinks the world of the horse and will also hope for decent ground for his charge. Paul Carberry seemed a bit confused as to the target for the horse, suggesting one of the handicaps, to me it looks like the Supreme is the only option and surely he can be competitive. Nicky Henderson's Ainama lets his followers down and in my view needs some more experience still, time has run out however and perhaps Aintree is a better option this year. The Grand National picture was given another coat of paint with Black Appalachi's win at Fairyhouse over last years third Snowy Morning and a recent market mover in Southern Vic. This was a real staying performance on ground that perhaps wasn't perfect for him. Should we get a bog in April then he must have a mighty chance especially considering his win over the fences earlier this year. Snowy Morning certainly showed a return to form with a smart effort even without kicking on from two out. He travelled like the winner but couldn't carry it through when it counted. He stays and stays and lively ground will help him to keep up with the pace like last year, he could still gallop on into the places again but perhaps without winning. Southern Vic made a bad mistake towards the end ruining his chances but it was an encouraging effort and he will probably be better again come the big day off a very nice weight. An Soirrac ran in the Hunter Chase and most of the watching crowd stood in awe! This is a horse to follow until beaten but it will not be at the Judge's kind of prices. Given an armchair ride by Nina Carberry and never having to move a muscle this was hugely impressive round of jumping and one that will stay in the memory. I am not sure what plans they may have for the animal but I am sure they are grand enough. Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 16th February 2009 - It's hard to take all these recent reverses on the racing front. Glenquest at Leopardstown on Sunday was the latest example of being just a few strides away from a decent pay out and this has been the theme for the best part of a month! Our selection at 25/1 jumped the last infront and was swamped on the line by four horses and finished an agonising fifth - no return and no consolation for us. We will plough on and hope that better form is around the corner or perhaps that The Judge will find faster horses which would help. We aren't betting again this week until Friday perhaps and definitely Saturday so concentrate on Colin Coupon's football bets for the midweek action - he is in good form which is good for us. Back to that Glenquest race and you have to pick out a few eye catchers with Cheltenham handicaps soon to be sorted out. Alexander Severus was exactly this and surely could have been closer with the horse pulling all sorts after jumping the last and not getting a clean run - connections are now heading for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and most will have taken some sort of note of this especially the bookmakers. Another to put in a very nice run was Splurge and a shot at the County Hurdle seems a good way to go here. Enter The Indian was supported in the market to small money and was in with a chance in the home straight, I still expect improvement on better ground and most likely Fairyhouse will suit in March/April with better conditions. Otherwise Neptune Collonges impressed without being electric in beating Notre Pere who ran very gamely. He will still be third best of the Nicholls trio for the Gold Cup in my opinion with Denman's run behind Madison De Berlais still better than this bare form and Kauto Star's King George win the best form on offer from the Ditcheat stables. I still think the race is for the taking from elsewhere and conditions on the day will play a big part. The bookmakers seem slow this year in going non runner no bet for the festival so it's wise to keep the powder - whatever is left - dry for a while till they do!! All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 14th February 2009 - Well Colin Coupon nearly collected big time yesterday but still had another profitable day on the football - he will hit a big one shortly I'm sure. The same cannot be said for the Judge and his current run of dismal form continues, yesterday two horses finished one place out of the money at double figure prices so we didn't collect and the biggest bet of the day was stung by non-runners when only managing third in a seven runner field rather than nine....Only East Beach gave us a return with a decent run at Gowran Park so maybe it's a good thing that we concentrate on Ireland today with Leopardstown. We have been there or thereabouts with good prices but need to get it right soon to arrest this slide from profit to losses! All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 13th February 2009 - Well the effort of our selection today means that the weekend ahead is really crucial to The Judge's finances!! Hopefully Colin Coupon will have some football specials for us to cheer come Sunday evening. Cracking racing tomorrow and hopefully no bad weather to spoil the action. In Ireland they are hoping to see Nicanor over the fences at Gowran although Leopardstown on Sunday really holds all the aces Neptune Collonges putting his Gold Cup credentials on the line and the crack novice hurdlers look to sort out the pecking order with Huricane Run, Cousin Vinny and Zaarito lining up in a pre-Cheltenham stormer. All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 9th February 2009 - A poor days punting for our followers on Saturday with none of the selections rewarding our faith. Tinagoodnight was well backed but refused to race and our other two picks put in really tame efforts so the dismal run continues. Yet again we unearthed a big priced winner in the write up with Madison de Berlais fancied as the only danger to a returning Denman and he proved exactly that putting in a super performance and winning very comfortably. Apologies that no points were advised and it's a frustrating time for the Judge!! Seeing Denman line up for the race it was hard not to notice his appearance was very different to that of March last year. To my eye he had lost condition and was certainly lighter and less imposing, he ran ok but that is not the Denman who stormed to Hennessy and Gold Cup victory last year that's for sure. I am not sure we will see the old Denman back as Paul Nicholls was quick to suggest that there was not a lot more to come and sadly they had sincerely hoped for better. He will definitely miss the National and they will now ready him for the Gold Cup, hard to see him winning that on this performance and his current price of 9/2 will only appeal to the die hard "Denmanites"out there and he should only be considered if there on the day. It leaves the door wide open for Kauto Star to regain his former crown although that would be a rare effort indeed and perhaps there is a younger up and comer to take them all on this time round. At the prices I would be keen to have a small interest in Imperial Commander, he is trading around 40s and has a fantastic Cheltenham record. The slight doubt over the longer trip and the stable's wellbeing probably contribute to that price but if he lines up here instead of the Ryanair then he'd be a decent e/w shot - soon enough the bookies will go Non Runner No Bet on festival wagers and then it's a good time to re-assess the situation. However his Paddy Power win was impressive and he beat the much touted Barbers Shop that day fairly comfortably. Notre Pere in a bog would also fall into the e/w category and Exotic Dancer has been well campaigned this year to avoid the big guns in England and thus restore some confidence to the highly talented chaser. The Aintree Grand National weights come out tomorrow and always fascinating to see the market moves following the announcement - Hear The Echo will be a mighty strong favourite if given anything around the 10st10lb mark after his Irish National win last year with notably the hugely improved Notre Pere well beaten that day. With Denman out I am sure the handicapper has had to start again over the framework for the race so a late night in store for Phil Smith !! My picks at this stage prior to the weights would definitely be headed by the Mouse Morris inmate and there's a couple off the radar in the shape of Parsons Legacy and Southern Vic that merit closer inspection..... All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 5th February 2009- Review So Far......................... We start with some facts from the past 6 weeks or so since Onthenoseinfo began... Four winning selections, seven second placed horses and a further seven placed horses at an average price of selection a lofty 14/1. Best winner 16/1 and best placed horse at 33s twice...sadly not profits at the end of this! A total of 53 horses selected suggests too many plays, especially over a period where the ground at most racecourses was seriously dubious. Up to the middle of January things had been going to plan but some dodgy selections put us on the back foot and we didn't recover. In addition there were some near misses at big prices, Sherwoods Folly's run at 66s still haunts me, Tender Falcon's head bobber and some late non-runners costs us place returns on several occasions. These things happen and I expect they will go our way in the near future and the damage more than repaired although maybe nothing can be done for the ante-post jinx that the Judge has placed on the previously excellent horses in Sizing Europe and Lodge Lane - let's get them to Cheltenham atleast!! Quiet week due to the weather again but Colin Coupon's advice is up for the weekend so get stuck in there. All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 31st January 2009 - What a poor end to the month on the racing front, a high of double figures ahead midway through to a shocking run of results to leave us well down over all. We had some near misses but not enough to justify the end score and that is a shame for our pockets. February brings a slower tempo build up to the festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree in March and April so the intention will be to address the balance accordingly before we hit Prestbury Park. No bet for us tomorrow as it's time for review ( in hindsight should have done that today! ) Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 30th January 2009 - Raider Of The East nearly copped for us today but didn't quite last home under a slightly awkward steer from Rhys Flint who is an able pilot but perhaps didn't take the easiest ground available - however we weren't the only ones to take the generous odds about this horse and we will keep an eye on future engagements. It's a shame we haven't got to a better position this month, a few hard luck stories but bascially we have been off target in the last 10 days or so and that cost us the profit from the first two weeks plus a bit more. The reasons will be analysed and our advice so far gone over to see if we could improve our points system and our strategy - I am keen to stress that it is not our style and indeed my own punting strategy to go chasing after a few wins on the shorter and more obviously priced horses that we all could pick from reading any saturday newspaper racing headline. Instead we continue to find horses priced bigger than there form chances on the basis of our own tissue prices and study - basically value. This does not mean each selection will be double figure odds; as our results have shown if a 3/1 should be evens then we get involved... Here's to a good weekend for all Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 29th January 2009 - A nose and a nose stopped us from being back in the money today on the racing front. Tender Falcon ran a cracker but could not get his bobbing head in front on the line - at 12/1 he was a nice price and we took a bit back but it would have been much sweeter had Timmy Murphy just grabbed a few more inches out of the horse!! At Thurles, Knight Legend emptied when going well and thus our e/w double was down and we move on slightly worse for the day. This weekend is crunch time if we are to avoid a losing month - having said that we'll only go for the value so if it's there in the prices then we will get involved. Apologies for the delay in tidying up the site with the old blogs and info this will happen shortly - all the info will still be accessible but not on the one page of endless text. Thanks for all your comments through the email as always. Also a well done to CC for the football treble this week - deserved after some unfortunate late goals cost him recently and nice to see him back in front again overall. His weekend advice should be up and on line by end of play Friday. Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 26th January 2009 - A return to form of sorts today with two seconds and a small place double landed - hopefully a good end to the month in store. Lodge Lane ran no race today jumping poorly and there will be other days of course especially when Dartnell gets his team going again. I see the bookies go bigger Lodge Lane now on the back of this and I will be going in again for Cheltenham at those prices..... Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 25th January 2009 - Desperate conditions for the brave people at Leopardstown today and the even braver horses and jockeys on the track. Our two selections didn't perform as hoped and this has been the theme for a poor week all round. Callherwhatulike was backed off the boards but it never looked like a winning wager as she failed to come home in the rain soaked ground and finished a tired 7th; if in my care a spin back over hurdles at around two and a half miles would be the next move for her to restore some confidence. Sinatra Bar hugely underperformed and the race was won by Chateau Deau who previously showed decent bumper form but not on this type of ground and was a surprise winner all round. Conditions lent themselves to shock results and we saw two others in the form of Golden Silver over Forpaddytheplasterer in a titanic battle for the Arkle and Roberta Goldback claiming the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle. Roberta Goldback relished these conditions and in hindsight should have been a selection for us today but the competition was strong and I thought more experience was needed to take this prize but Jessica Harrington certainly knows better!! There is still time left this month but we could do with some more reliable ground than the boggy stuff currently on offer both sides of the water. Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 24th January 2009 - Well where to start on a poor day for myself and another last minute heart breaker for Colin Coupon! Burnley's last minute equaliser wiped out West Brom's advantage and cost us our winning treble and left CC wondering what he has done to offend the footballing gods - the FA Cup is always full of surprises but we looked home and hosed to collect here - we will get them go our way in due course and consolation awaits. As for the horses let's start with Halla San who ran well for a mile before fading tamely and pulling up, primed for his comeback and fancied this was a poor effort and I hope the horse is fine and well. French Saulaei pulled up distressed after wrenching the jockeys arms out of his sockets and was never comfortable today. Laustra Bad's early mistake blew his chances of getting to the front few but he ran well to finish fifth and another opportunity waits we hope. Lysander was running into contention before overjumping and losing his jockey just before it got interesting - again he is still well positioned to take a decent pot soon. Finaly Tidal Bay ran an honest race and class alone meant he battled on into third - in all fairness to his critics jumping did cause problems but he has guts to spare and will now be aimed at the Ryanair Chase for the festival and will be hard to beat. Joe Lively is a true stayer and did it well with the Aintree Grand National now a possibility - the weights will dictate his chances there. I left out Big Buck's - winner at 7/2 and The Sawyer - winner at 9/1, from my advice today on the basis that the available price was skinny in the case of Big Buck's and that the competition stronger for The Sawyer. Both of these reasons stand true to me but I was impressed with their performances and take note of my mistake not to keep us on board - I hope you played anyway!! Leopardstown tomorrow and rebuilding what we started is the aim. Over the next few weeks we will also take a look at the antepost markets for the Festival and put together an Ante-Post book. Best wishes The Judge
Racing Blog 23rd January 2009 - Poor effort from our selection today What's In Front who couldn't make the frame and ran a very poor race. Conditions were very testing as expected which should have suited so no excuses offered here. The majority of runners finished very tired in all the races and it took some tough animals to last out even over 2 miles. Mansony put up a cracking effort to win the Grade 2 chase from Thyne Again, Davy Russel rode the perfect race picking it up from the last and powering home. Connections have been rewarded for targeting home races this season and he remains top rank in Ireland over the minimum distance. The money really came for Pink Suitcase who obliged by a short head under a super ride from his young jockey. As I pointed out this is a well thought of animal and market support had to be noted - I hope you played accordingly. Great racing this weekend and about time we put a few more winners on the board. Serious study awaits....... Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 22nd January 2009 - A quick update on Hoopy's performance today at Gowran as things looked good coming to the second last when well in contention and staying on nicely. What happened next I am not sure as he jumped it fine but soon came to a stop and jumping the last in fifth place was soon walking and pulled up. The conditions were atrocious but raceable and suited the repeat winner Priests Leap who rallied gamely to beat Chelsea Harbour in what was a super trial for Aintree in April. The money was down on our horse having been available at 7s early morning and backed into a prohibitive 4/1fav so we were not alone, limp consolation though of course - this was a hard race and I think a break is in order before we see Hoopy out again. Arbour Supreme ran very well under the weight burden and will continue to improve with Aintree in mind although perhaps for 2010 rather than this year? Looking forward to the weekend. Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 17th January 2009 - Firstly I hope you enjoyed the snooker blog below - soon we will have a section dedicated to other sports where we see value or something worth a preview with punting in mind. These don't carry the usual points as per the Racing and our Football advice but are hopefully interesting and worth following and your feedback is as always welcomed. The site will have a small update shortly to better manage such items and archive some older text although it will still be available for view and review! As for the Racing today we hit the crossbar with Group Captain who ran a cracker but Lough Derg is some animal, so game and tough he was a deserved winner. Howle Hill may head for the yard now as connections were hoping to see a sparkle return but sadly he couldn't compete today. Tender Falcon came to win his race but the testing ground meant he couldn't kick on and tackle the winner and eventually being nabbed for second place. We had a couple go the other way in Iron Man and Regal Approach and neither had any obvious problem but didn't perform as hoped so we move on and keep working! Master Minded was superb and deserves his lofty perch unlike a few others today who lost momentum like Free World and Snap Tie in their pursuit to the Cheltenham Festival in March. Hopefully we will have something for tomorrow to carry us into next week with a few more readies to play with. Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 14th January 2009 - The Sawyer Cuts Downs His Rivals at 16/1 !!!!! Apologies for making you all wait an extra hour for todays update but at least it was worth it as we collected on both selections with The Sawyer landing the odds at an advised 16/1. It's been coming as we have had some near misses with decent prices recently so I am happy patience is rewarded! Racing in the end did not go ahead at Newcastle which will have seriously disapointed the connections of Quaddick Lake as they have well and truely shown their hand for next time. Expect a quick entry and a short priced win from this horse in the very near future! At Newbury Mad Max won as he liked against our selection Shoreacres who ran well but could only manage third place, to me it looked like the first three would have appreciated more pace and are likely to improve further should they get it next time up. Novicey jumping and greeness was evident as you may expect but we collected at e/w odds so good start for us. As for The Sawyer the race went perfectly to plan for horse and jockey and stamina and sharpness told in the end. As I suggested the winner had shown best form in a higher grade than this in his last run and was likely to play a leading role at generous odds. Jumping was key and he really took it out of the field from some way out. Appleaday is a good yardstick at Newbury and boosts the form further still and we will see what kind of weight rise is given by the handicapper for this performance. All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 12th January 2009 - Pierse Hurdle Shocker For Punters..... Well where to start with the farcical weights increase in the Pierse hurdle that sent punters reaching for the small print! Backers of Psycho can feel rightly agrieved at the sight of their horse going down to the outsider Penny's Bill who surely would have not been able to compete had Newmill stood it's ground and ran off top weight. Under the revised weights Psycho carried an extra 8lbs ( 6lbs worse with the winner after the revision ) which in my view made the difference in the run to line and cost a lot of horses their chance on the day - however all credit to the winner who was not without a form chance anyway and had been well preped by shrewd connections. The jockey should also take great credit for a super ride and compensation for a near miss last year finishing second on Brave Right. Congratulations to all concerned and a thought spared for the Tony Martin team and the owners of an unlucky second. Our picks didn't perform as hoped and no excuses are offered bar perhaps the weight taking it's toll but even then better efforts were hoped for! Coscorrig ran a cracker and almost pulled it off for us in the opener but could not resist the late surge of Majestic Concorde who looks a chaser to follow after this impressive debut performance. The second will appreciate a "mares only" race and will no doubt score soon enough for her connections. Badgerlaw was profesional enough finishing third in another race blighted by a late weights rise which no doubt blunted his finish although it must be said the winner, P'tit Fute, looked pretty clear cut and will now head for Cheltenham to take up the final of this hurdle series. Schindlers Hunt was a revelation over a slightly longer trip than he has tackled previously and in hindsight was a cracking price to take the feature chase. Finger on the Pulse managed a tired third and the race was run at a good pace so the form should stand up. Merchant Paddy took the earlier novice chase and did it very well, he should continue to improve and can rack up more wins at the right level. A final note for Zaarito and Rare Bob who took their engagements well at Punchestown today, the former is definitely a candidate for the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham and given more experience is one to look forward to. Overall great to have the racing back following a very cold front for punters !! Thanks for all your emails and comments - appreciate them and please keep in touch. Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 10th January 2009 - Non Runner Gives Us The Hump! Saturday was cruel to us with a gambled winner defeating Gypsy George who gave a terrific weight carrying performance in finishing second and our other two selections missing an e/w pay out by one place. In the case of Young Albert it was a single non runner that cost us the dough, a late defection is proving to be frequent in the 16+ runners races and something that needs could be looked at to protect punters and the sport. Too often a 16 runner race will lose one horse and alter the place betting terms after morning exchanges are complete leaving the bookies with a nice get out - I am not the only one raising the issue and it is often brought up in the racing media circles but of course is ultra hard to monitor and keep bookie and punter happy. There are no doubt genuine reasons for a late defection and many times it happens without consequence bar the rule 4 deductions to winning bets but it does happen with alarming frequency. The solution for e/w punters in such a situation lies with the place betting facility on Betfair where non runners do not alter the place terms and bets stand, although I advise prices from bookmakers I would always suggest punters check the prices on offer with the exchanges as prices are often inflated especially on outsiders in big fields, something to bear in mind when this happens. Our Football expert Colin Coupon won and lost with late equalisers - one at St James' Park putting pay to his main selection but one from Sunderland over 'Boro means we have a nice interest in the clash between Man U and Chelsea tomorrow.....enjoy. Onwards to Leopardstown tomorrow where I hope for a bit more luck in running!! All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 8th January 2009 - A FEW DEGREES NEEDED ASAP! We are desperate for a change in the weather so we can get back underway with the better racing. This weekend is already depleted but hopefully Leopardstown will get the all clear for Sunday's card which holds some definite interest for punters. The Pierse Hurdle is the highlight but the supporting card is also a good draw and we will be involved for sure. I am waiting on the jockey bookings before naming my main fancy for the Pierse as it will be key on the day that we have the right pilot and in addition it is likely we will get more value with 5 places being offered for e/w bets struck on the day itself. The money is already moving around a few contenders with Alpine Eagle and Psycho most notable positives so far, not surprising perhaps one being a JP McManus horse and the other a Tony Martin inmate - both famed for succesful gambles of course. Let's hope we are on and I will update in good time for us to get involved - we may have a bet tomorrow so check online from 11.30 - if not then Saturday and Sunday will see us resume something like normal service. All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 2nd January 2009 - BIG BUCKS SCORES IN STYLE......... A cracking start to the year for Onthenoseinfo as Big Bucks really delivered over hurdles as we expected. A hugely talented horse this will prove a nice stepping stone to bigger things, probably only over hurdles this season but I would be pretty certain that he will also reach the very top as a chaser once jumping issues are resolved. Remember he is only 6 years old and ran a cracker in the Hennessy despite taking a tumble late on and no doubt will be given more opportunities to prove himself in that sphere next year. A cracking horse for the Stewart family to look forward to and they may even try a tilt at the Stayers ( World ) Hurdle this coming March and he will not be out of place there. Our other selections didn't come off as hoped. Gaelic Gift ran no sort of race and jumped too big for his front running style to work and the exertion over his fences cost him momentum and no doubt energy. His profile is still an improving one and he may try a tilt at a big staying race yet and will remain of interest in my view, especially on dryer ground. Enter The Indian ran a nice race although not good enough to make the frame. Coming to three out he had travelled and jumped nicely but the ground probably blunted his finishing kick and coupled with a barging match with more imposing Native Clan it eventually put paid to his chance here. He wasn't over extended from the last hurdle so no damage done to a fair mark for future engagements. Two horses at Fairyhouse really caught the eye in their respective races. Cockleshell Road won the maiden hurdle in the style of nice horse and Good Fella easily disposed of his rivals in the beginners chase. The former is a decent type who won a bumper by a country mile at Fairyhouse last year before running midfield in the Cheltenham Bumper and looks like he will make the grade at a higher level. Good Fella was well supported and didn't let his backers down with an assured and very facile victory. Jumping into contention from three out his jockey never panicked and took the race in commanding style at the last; certainly one to keep in the note book. At Cheltenham the Dipper Novices Chase was taken by Henrietta Knight's Calgary Bay and it was a good performance from a horse open to all sorts of improvement and notably very highly rated by shrewd connections and by the champ A P McCoy which should be noted by all. However I was still impressed with Kicks For Free in second place who conceeded 4lbs and made a jumping error which cost crucial momentum when the race really kicked off. I still think they should go the Arkle route with this horse as the pace and demanding nature of it will suit down to the ground. The stable also have the ante-post favourite in Tatenen so they know the time of day, I will watch with interest. All the best The Judge
Racing Blog 30th December 2008 - WE WANT BIGGER PROFITS.........GIVE IT TIME! I am delighted we have ended the year with a winner at Leopardstown and a perfectly named horse if ever there was one! Our other picks, Tamayo unshipped his jockey rather than took a proper tumble and I will be keen to see what kind of opposition he lines up against next time as there are races to be won with this horse under the correct conditions. Deal Maker was never happy in his race and as feared he didn't jump straight enough to carry any momentum away from his fences...he may turn out on Thursday at Fairyhouse and I will re-assess his chances there. Give It Time however was very impressive and given a super ride in a rough and rumble race for the mares. Pomme Tiepy faded and looks to have had a few too many hard races and in my view needs to be given a break now. For the winner though I am sure Jessica Harrington will look to Cheltenham and the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle as a likely target for her. A final word on the Champion Hurdle picture and in our case Sizing Europe; yesterdays run was promising until two out and strangely this seems to be his new running style although perhaps he was not quite right following a stone bruise injury scare. Either way the horse did not go through with his run when nicely positioned - let's hope for a problem free run up to the Irish Champion Hurdle and an improved performance. As for Sublimity he produced a solid performance and deserves to go to Cheltenham again with a leading chance. Won In The Dark improved a lot for the better ground and it will be interesting to see if there is more to come. All the very best Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 28th December 2008 - EXOTIC CLAIMS PRIZE AT LEOPARDSTOWN AND PIERSE POINTERS A PLENTY!! A very impressive and overdue scalp for Exotic Dancer yesterday in the Lexus chase. Given a patient ride his class really told and the nearly horse of racing earned some good reviews and didn't have to watch a Denman or Kauto Star galloping away in front for a change. Well done to connections for the placement here and congratulations to all concerned with the horse - With doubts over Denman still at this stage I am sure they are thinking of the Gold Cup again in March but hard to see the horse beating either Kauto or Denman if they arrive there fit and healthy. Of my selections I was not too disappointed with An Cathaoir Mor who jumped big and bold and lacked a bit of a kick at the business end - seeing him in person yesterday I think he will make a fine chaser and could pick up a hurdle or two along the way and we will monitor his entries still. Sophocles however was a different matter and I cannot expain the performance as it was surely to bad too be a true reflection of the horse's ability. Given a very careful ride from the outset starting off midfield and gradually finding the back of the pack to never pick up was strange and I hope that the horse is sound this morning. If connections decide to take up the Pierse Hurdle option for which he is entered come two weeks time I wouldn't be surprised to see a better performance with the pace of the race to be a bonus if Sophocles should return to form it would surely suit him. These things happen and we are dealing with animals of course who can have off days but I would be interested to hear any comments about his well being following this lacklustre effort in a race that should have been within his compass. Again we will monitor the horse for the Pierse and races afterwards in due course. Others to throw up performances of note in this race were Tom Doodle and Siege of Ennis - both possible Pierse runners and Enter the Indian who will no doubt be back to his best for a Fairyhouse engagement - maybe later this week or in the new year. Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 27th December 2008 - A CROSSBAR WEEK FOR THE JUDGE !! Well where do I start with an analysis of the first week of the site! It's been a rollercoaster already that is for sure. Our resident Football Expert, Colin Coupon, was a prime example as last minute goals in his key games completely changed our fortunes. Viduka popped up at St James Park in the dying moments to deny Spurs a point and secure the CC double on the 20th Dec and then a Leed's equaliser against Leicester on Boxing Day, this time 90th minute, ruined his double when we looked sure to collect once more. Regardless he will start the New Year in front and we move on from there. On the Racing front we hit the crossbar a number of times at big odds. On the 20th we nearly copped a decent pay out when Chief Yeoman belied the 33/1 morning odds just running out of puff in the closing stages to finish a tired second at Haydock. Group Captain on the same day ran a blinder but got caught for finishing speed in the Ladbroke but all the same a fair start to the week as we took a small profit. On Boxing Day Michael Flips won easily to put us in the clover but a combination of a non-runner in Blue Bajan's race costing us an e/w pay out and my mistake in the tissue prices for Smoking Aces put us on the back foot. With it being the xmas period I had to work without full price information - hence tipping an 11/8 shot e/w which will not be a common occurrence I assure you all. Finally we come to today's racing and although I highlighted the Welsh National winner Notre Pere in the preview I can't help but feel we got short changed with Sherwoods Folly - such a shame he couldn't hold on to a placing and got run out of it finishing a tired but gallant 5th. At the second last I couldn't see how he wouldn't be involved but that's racing! Well Run scored for us thanks to Paddy Power's G'teed prices and 5th place concessions - as we have seen in just one week it really pays to take the bookies up on these offers - even at the cost of a point or two here or there. Let's look forward to hitting one of these big price horses soon - I will keep trying to find the value for us in the meantime... Cheers The Judge
Racing Blog 23rd December 2008 � BINOCULAR SIGHTS SET FIRM FOR CHELTENHAM - CAN HE BE TAKEN ON? Following Binocular's demolition job on Saturday the pundits are already crowning him Champion Hurdler for Cheltenham come March. We were right in calling the danger as last years Triumph winner Celestial Halo but really that is fairly liberal use of the word watching the race again! Charlie Swan likens Binocular to the mighty Istabracq and the Racing Post's TopSpeed suggests he's hit a mark that would win nine of the last ten versions of the Champion which is no mean feat of course. He was visually very impressive in the despatching of Celestial Halo over the last two flights making him look like a handicapper and there is no way Celestial Halo ran below par. However he was beaten at Cheltenham when in receipt of weight in the Supreme Novices by Captain Cee Bee and that perhaps raises the one question mark over the horse - the Cheltenham course and in particular the steep hill finish. Throw in that he is only 4 years old and 5 come Cheltenham time and the price looks skinny to me. So what is there in the ranks to take him on with bar injury between now and the festival?? In my view two horses stand out and merit consideration. Sizing Europe is the horse which set's the standard in Ireland. A breathtaking performance last January at Leopardstown when slamming the top drawer yardsticks of Al Eile and Hardy Eustace is equal if not superior to that of Binocular at the weekend. A pleasing comeback run behind Hardy Eustace when having the race in the bag but lacking for crucial fitness has gone some way to restoring any lost faith since the Champion last year when he went off warm favourite only to finish distressed � clearly not true running by any means. It is no surprise that despite not winning that race he sits second favourite in the ante post lists at around 8/1. Likely to run and probably impress this weekend he can be backed now and will no doubt be shorter on the big day bar injury. The other horse to consider is definitely more off the radar, at the current prices Blue Bajan screams value before he tackles the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton this weekend. His form is below that of a Champion Hurdle winner but he is improving and that is vital at this stage. A pleasing run behind the Ladbroke Hurdle winner Sentry Duty conceding lumps of weight was a nice seasonal warm up and then his next race saw him travel upsides Punjabi and Sublimity before the sprint finish to the re-scheduled Fighting Fifth hurdle at Wetherby. That performance was a real eye catcher having had a disrupted prep, late jockey change and a false run race would not have suited at all. Graham Lee is the key to this horse and he has won three times from four starts on board including a fantastic demolition victory in the Swinton Hurdle last backend. At 40/1 and the likelihood of getting optimum conditions this weekend I can only see this price tumbling should he duly perform so worth taking a chance now at lumpy odds. Cheltenham Festival � Ante Post � Champion Hurdle March 2009 SIZING EUROPE 1pt win 8/1 ( VC Bet and Sporting Bet ) BLUE BAJAN - 1pt e/w 40/1 ( BET 365 and Sporting Bet )
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